Www Mortgagebankerslender Lender El 1644480460 Mortgage Bankers Lender JP Morgan 加入房托队伍 - 未名空间(mitbbs.com)

发信人: rainhard (rainhard), 信区: SanFrancisco
标  题: JP Morgan 加入房托队伍
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Sat Nov  5 13:15:59 2011, 美东)

摘要:

- Median price to household income ratio is history low at 153%
- history low mortgage interest
- Median mortgage payment is only 78% of median asking rent, and it used to
be 105% before 2005
- new house price is only 25% higher than construction cost, and it is twice
as much in 2005

全文:

With the debt crisis in Europe still unresolved and economic growth in the U
.S. sluggish, the capital markets continue to exhibit elevated volatility.
However, this does not mean that no investment opportunities exist. Although
the U.S. housing market remains extremely depressed, we believe that given
current valuations and demographic dynamics, now may be the time to consider
an investment in housing.

Few financial manias in history have had as devastating an economic impact
as the American real estate bubble of the 2000s. From soaring boom to dismal
and continuing bust, it has shipwrecked the financial plans of millions of
American families, led to an absolute collapse in the construction industry
and, through the magic of modern financial leverage, led to the biggest
global recession since World War II. A few years ago, most Americans
believed that there was no better long-term investment than owning your own
home. Today, many regard home ownership as a financial ball and chain.

But while the change in attitudes has been dramatic, so has the change in
the numbers themselves. Years of falling prices and falling mortgage rates
have made home buying more affordable than it has been in decades. Moreover,
home prices look downright cheap, not only from the perspective of mortgage
rates and income, but also relative to the cost of renting or the cost of
constructing a new home.

Meanwhile, continued population growth, combined with lender and borrower
caution, has increased pent-up demand. While the inventory of homes both on
the market and in foreclosure remains high, minimal home building over the
past three years is gradually eating into this stockpile, a process that
could quickly accelerate with any pickup in demand.

Home prices play a crucial role in determining household wealth and shaping
consumer confidence. In addition, any revival in home building could provide
a much-needed boost to overall economic growth and employment. However,
beyond the implications for the macroeconomy and financial markets, the
numbers on housing have an important message for American families today,
and particularly younger families setting out on life’s great adventure:
Five years ago, at the peak of the home-buying euphoria, it was emphatically
a time to rent. Today, when home ownership is depreciated more than ever
before, the numbers tell us it is a time to buy.

Collapse and consequences

The sad saga of the U.S. housing crash is now so well known that it seems
almost cruel to rehash the details. Many observers at the time realized that
too many houses were being built, home prices were rising too quickly and
lending standards were being dangerously compromised in fueling the bubble.
While there is much more to the story, the bottom line is that by January
2006, U.S. housing starts reached a peak of just under 2.3 million units
annualized, about 50% higher than the average level of starts over the past
50 years, while the price of the average, existing single-family home was up
47% in just five years. Something had to give, and it did — in a big way.

Since then, the collapse in housing has been of historic proportions,
amplified by the financial crisis of 2008. Some numbers can help put this in
perspective:

• In almost 50 years, from January 1959 to September 2008, the lowest
annualized rate of housing starts recorded for any month was 798,000, and
the average rate was more than 1.5 million units. Since January 2009, the
highest rate recorded for any month has been 687,000, and the average rate
has been just 575,000.

• From their peak in late 2005, nationwide median existing single-
family home prices have fallen by 29% in nominal terms and by 37% relative
to inflation.

• Since the first quarter of 2006, the value of home equity has fallen
from $13.5 trillion to $6.2 trillion, a 54% decline.

All of this has had a profound impact on the economic environment,
investment environment and even the psychological outlook of Americans.

• Since the start of the recession in December 2007, construction
employment nationwide has fallen by 1.9 million jobs, or 30% of the 6.6
million jobs lost. This from a sector that even at its peak only ever
accounted for 5.7% of U.S. jobs. However, even this understates the impact
of the housing slump on employment, as it ignores the ancillary industries
that have been impacted by the decline in housing, along with all the
employment effects caused by the impact of a collapse in housing market
wealth, confidence and the stock market.

• Since the middle of 2006, home building has fallen from 5.9% of
nominal GDP to just 2.2%

• Falling home prices have also had a profound impact on consumer
confidence. Statistical work over the last decade suggests that a 10% change
in year-over year average existing home prices tends to move the consumer
sentiment index by approximately 6.4 index points in the same direction,
even after accounting for feed-though effects of housing on the stock market
and employment. For reference, the consumer sentiment index was at a level
of 57.5 in early October 2011, almost 30 points lower than its average level
of the last 40 years.

• Perhaps most important, declining home prices have undermined the
confidence of both lenders and borrowers, impeding any healthy recovery in
housing and restraining a rebound elsewhere within the economy.

Measures of value

While no one should understate the pain and destruction caused by the
bursting of the housing bubble, it has had one undeniable effect: Across a
wide range of measures, it has left the United States with its cheapest
housing market in decades.

One of the simplest measures is just to look at home prices relative to
average household income. The chart to the left shows the relationship
between average, per-household personal income (1) and home prices over the
years. Since 1966, the median price of an existing single family home in the
U.S. has varied between 150% and 251% of personal income per household. oWww Mortgagebankerslender Lender El 1644480460 Mortgage Bankers Lender JP Morgan 加入房托队伍 - 未名空间(mitbbs.com)c Program Mortgage Bankers Lender Lender lWww Mortgagebankerslender Lender El 1644480460 Mortgage Bankers Lender JP Morgan 加入房托队伍 - 未名空间(mitbbs.com)p e Fapturbo Mortgage Mortgage Bankers